Then, month by month, it applies these percentage changes to obtain an estimate for the current month’s employment. The BLS benchmarked data determine the baseline level of employment, and the Dallas Fed uses the data available after t 1 to compute the percentage change in employment from one month to the next. The Dallas Fed links these different data sources to construct its complete payroll employment series. Finally, preliminary QCEW data are not available for months after t 2, so both the Dallas Fed and the BLS use CES survey data. In contrast, the BLS relies on CES survey data for months t 1 through t 2. For months t 1 through t 2, the Dallas Fed incorporates preliminary releases of QCEW data. For all months through t 1, both the BLS and the Dallas Fed use the benchmarked employment data that the BLS releases each March. The timeline in Figure 1 highlights the composition of the Dallas Fed and the BLS payroll employment series, which may help clarify the differences between the data available from these sources. The Technical Solution Incorporate Administrative Data as Soon as It's Released This “early benchmarking” process ensures the Dallas Fed’s payroll employment estimates rely on the most accurate data available. The Dallas Fed updates its employment numbers quarterly using preliminary releases of the QCEW from the Texas Workforce Commission.
This annual process is known as benchmarking, and the resulting employment numbers are often referred to as the benchmarked employment data.įor the state of Texas, the Dallas Fed improves on this process in one important way. The BLS revises its payroll employment numbers each March to incorporate this information.
The QCEW relies on administrative data with broad coverage, so it offers more comprehensive employment information than the CES survey. These data cover about 97 percent of nonfarm payroll employees, and data for the remaining 3 percent of nonfarm employees are obtained from other sources. The primary source of these data is the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which compiles information from unemployment insurance records that firms file with their states. More comprehensive counts of payroll employment become available later. This survey covers about one-third of the nation’s nonfarm employers, and the BLS uses this sample to estimate recent payroll employment.
#BENCHMARK MEANING IN US GOVERNMENT SERIES#
The most recent four to 18 months of the CES series rely on the CES survey, which is also referred to as the Establishment Survey or the payroll survey. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases a payroll employment series known as the Current Employment Statistics (CES). As a result, early releases of economic statistics are often revised multiple times as more detailed information becomes available.Įmployment is one of the most important indicators of economic activity. However, it often takes months or years for the most comprehensive economic data to become available. The Economic Problem Survey Data More Timely Administrative Data More ComprehensiveĪssessing the current state of the economy requires accurate and up-to-date measures of economic activity. How early benchmarking improves the accuracy of payroll employment data.
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